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Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation.
The core of Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.
List of contributors
Preface
1. Risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards L. J. Hill, R. S. J. Sparks and J. C. Rougier
2. Quantifying natural hazard risk J. C. Rougier
3. Model limitations: the sources and implications of epistemic uncertainty J. C. Rougier and K. J. Beven
4. Expert elicitation and judgment W. P. Aspinall and R. M. Cooke
5. Risk and uncertainty in hydrometeorological hazards T. L. Edwards and P. G. Challenor
6. Hydrometeorological hazards under future climate change T. L. Edwards and P. G. Challenor
7. Hydrological flood uncertainty and risk research J. Freer, K. J. Beven, J. Neal, G. Schumann, J. Hall and P. Bates
8. Uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment W. P. Aspinall
9. Landslide and avalanche hazards T. K. Hincks, W. P. Aspinall, R. S. J. Sparks, E. A. Holcombe and M. Kern
10. Tsunami hazard and risk T. K. Hincks, R. S. J. Sparks and W. P. Aspinall
11. Risk and uncertainty assessment of volcanic hazards R. S. J. Sparks, W. P. Aspinall, H. S. Crosweller and T. K. Hincks
12. Risk assessment and management of wildfires T. K. Hincks, B. D. Malamud, R. S. J. Sparks, M. J. Wooster and T. J. Lynham
13. Technological facilities, infrastructure and hazardous materials, including some notes on space weather R. S. J. Sparks, W. P. Aspinall, N. A. Chapman, B. E. Hill, D. J. Kerridge, J. Pooley and C. A. Taylor
14. Statistical aspects of risk characterization in ecotoxicology G. L. Hickey and A. Hart
15. Social science perspectives on natural hazards risk and uncertainty S. Cornell and M. Jackson
16. Human responses to natural hazard risk: considerations for improving the effectiveness of risk management systems H.S. Crosweller and J. Wilmshurst
Index
Jonathan Rougier is a Reader in Statistics at the University of Bristol. He specialises in uncertainty assessment for complex systems, notably environmental systems such as climate and natural hazards. He has made several important contributions in the statistical field of computer experiments, including general approaches for representing model limitations, informal and formal approaches to model calibration and multivariate emulation for expensive models, such as climate models. Dr Rougier's recent and current collaborations include climate prediction and palaeo-climate reconstruction, ice-sheet modelling and sea-level rise, and inference for dynamical systems such as glacial cycles, avalanches and hydrocarbon reservoirs.
Steve Sparks is a Professorial Research Fellow at the University of Bristol. He is a volcanologist with interests in hazard and risk assessment, and his research includes the physics of volcanic eruptions and fluid dynamics of hazardous volcanic flows. He is the world's most highly cited scientist in volcanology and a former President of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior. Professor Sparks has been involved in hazard and risk assessment with advice for governments for volcanic emergencies, including during the eruption of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, and the emergencies related to volcanic ash from Iceland in 2010. He was on the planning committee of the Integrated Research into Disasters Reduction programme of the International Council for Science (ICSU) and is currently joint leader of the Global Volcano Model project.
Lisa Hill is Research Development Manager at the University of Bristol and also works as an independent researcher. She has worked with researchers to explore the interface between environmental science and social science for over ten years, initially at the UK Research Councils and later at the University of Bristol. Dr Hill's research interests are in human geography, archaeology and the environment, using non-representational theory to explore relations between people and the material world.
